By Aminu Imam
As the race towards the 2023 general election begins to rev up, the process of bringing on board fresh heads for the much-coveted number one position, the Presidency, is in full throttle and politicking for who succeeds the incumbent President, Muhammadu Buhari, who has less than two years remaining in office, has begun in earnest.
With gladiators, interest groups and stakeholders clamouring and canvassing for who and what they deem is the way forward for the country given the current challenges, however, the unabashed interest of the National Leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu for the position is undoubtedly on the front-burner of most political observers and indeed many Nigerians.
Recall that Tinubu’s support for the incumbent President Buhari in 2015, many political pundits have pointed out, was premised on his ambition of subsequently emerging as Nigeria’s next President. However, his hopes of first becoming vice president on a joint ticket with Muhammadu Buhari was dashed when forces within the formative APC resisted a Muslim–Muslim ticket, which left him with the only choice of deciding who emerges as the running mate of the then-presidential candidate of the APC.
In the end, Tinubu settled on the choice of his close associate, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, who was then the Attorney-General and Commissioner of Justice during the former’s tenure as governor of Lagos State, for the position.
However, with the emergence of the APC-led administration, pre-existing factions in the new ruling party began to crystallise and the battle for supremacy; but much of the issues seem to revolve around the game plan for who and which region should succeed to the presidency in 2023.
As some observers pointed out, the South-West is believed to be in the best position to produce the next president, going by permutations, and Tinubu appears to be top on the ladder.
As the expected power play, intrigues and controversy play out and as forces jostle for dominance, what stands out is the ultimate question of whose choice among the two camps, or rather, factions within the APC would finally hold sway. The factions are symbolised on one hand by some North-West States’ governors like Nasir el-Rufa’i, Atiku Bagudu, Malami, Minister Pantami and co. and the other faction is the South-West group, led by Tinubu.
While some in the pro-Tinubu camp are demanding that the Asiwaju be given the right of ‘first refusal’, the opposition faction would rather prefer otherwise.
Whichever way it plays out, many analysts believe that Tinubu may be in for the toughest fight of his political career as he contends with the latest forces arrayed against his interests. Recall that his case file was reported to have been recently dusted by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), after the appointment of its new chairman, Abdulrasheed Bawa, and that the anti-graft agency is already beaming its searchlight on his dealings during his tenure as governor of Lagos State.
Also, Tinubu had sought key positions for his allies in both the government and party structures in a bid to fortify the pathway to his future aspiration, a desire largely responsible for his fallout with the leadership of the eight National Assembly and the subsequent imposition of the leaders of the 9th NASS.
Although Tinubu has not officially declared interest to contest in 2023, his body language has betrayed his intentions, and with his campaign posters flooding streets in some parts of the country, it is obvious that he would no doubt throw his hat into the ring anytime soon.
While some voices in the North are calling for a southern presidency in 2023, making Tinubu a possible favourite, others however opine that the new entry into the APC of Governors Dave Umahi and Ben Ayade, of Bayelsa and Cross River States respectively, as well as the raging agitation in the South-East for the presidency, will also contribute to the emerging permutations in the ruling Party and the eventual decision of its power rotation arrangement.
While the Asiwaju has been on the forefront of the multiple frays and absorbing the heat, Osinbajo, his protege and loyal lieutenant, has rather preferred to remain ‘in the shadow’, so to speak. The Law Professor, who used to be a vibrantly visible character in the early days of the administration, has limited himself strictly to his official role devoid of any politics.
Some observers however averred that Osinbajo’s limited political stature may not be unconnected with the intention of his erstwhile boss to be visibly seen as the man at the heart of the play and a possible presidential successor in 2023. Osinbajo, despite his electoral value to the APC/Buhari sellability agenda, has always declined comment on the 2023 presidential candidacy.
But as Tinubu sets to contend against the obstacles ranged against the biggest prize of his political career, there are some who posit that V-P Osinbajo may remain the Asiwaju’s only game if his original plan goes awry.
Only recently, a group under the auspices of Progressive Consolidation Group (PCG), pleaded with Tinubu to shelve his ambition and support the Vice-President to contest the 2023 presidential election. The group argued that for the purpose of re-strategisation priorities of the Muhammadu Buhari presidency, Osinbajo is the best replacement.
Observers believe that the Jagaban’s best bet in retaining influence in any post–2023 political dispensation is by supporting the emergence of Osinbajo as flagbearer of the party. They opined that the V-P, being a Christian from the South with a highly touted professorial status that enticed the Nigerians and galvanised the 2015 APC presidential ticket, would be a much better and easier sell if he has the backing of Tinubu and the APC.
Many believe that the candidacy will unite and pacify many Nigerians, especially those who reckon that Osinbajo, as Vice President, was lacking the presidential mandate and freedom to exercise his intellectual and political dexterity in dealing with issues and solving national problems.